Table 3 The prior, likelihood and posterior calculations for detections identified in Table 2. Abbreviations are defined in Appendix Table 9

Prior

\(P(T)\)

0.996

0.996

\(P(F)\)

0.004

0.004

Likelihood

\(P(\mathrm{HR}|T)\)

0.05

0.259

\(P(\mathrm{HR}|F)\)

0.051

0.083

\(P(\mathrm{CRL}|T)\)

0.052

0.466

\(P(\mathrm{CRL}|F)\)

0.008

0.34

\(P(\mathrm{RSS}|T)\)

0.339

0.193

\(P(\mathrm{RSS}|F)\)

0.02

0.036

\(P(\mathrm{NR}|T)\)

0.427

 < 0.001

\(P(\mathrm{NR}|F)\)

0.045

0.018

\(P({\delta }^{2}L|T)\)

0.011

2.841

\(P({\delta }^{2}L|F)\)

0.002

0.001

Posterior

\(P(T|\mathrm{HR},\mathrm{CRL},\mathrm{RSS},\mathrm{NR},{\delta }^{2}L)\)

4.13E−06

7.49E−12

\(P(F|\mathrm{HR},\mathrm{CRL},\mathrm{RSS},\mathrm{NR},{\delta }^{2}L)\)

3.02E−12

5.23E−11